Hours before election day, the Middlesex community weighs in.
At the time of writing, the 2024 presidential election between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump is essentially tied, with most swing state polls within the margin of error. Middlesex was glad to have Matthew Dickinson, a professor of political science at Middlebury, come to campus the Saturday before Election Day for the quadrennial election symposium. Yet his choice not to offer an official election prediction is a testament to the unusual fifty-fifty split. Swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are likely to determine the winner. Here at Middlesex, the heads of the Politics Club and erudite faculty members weigh in on their presidential predictions.
Politics Club Heads remarks:
Caio Bernardini ‘25: “Trump has the odds to win, given that the polls are in favor of him in swing states, and that Trump has been historically underrepresented in the past two elections. At the same time, the Scranton Joe image in President Biden’s 2020 campaign—drawing working class voters—has been less effective in Kamala Harris’ campaign, despite her attempts to spotlight her middle-class upbringing. Nevertheless, the Democratic ticket still possesses an edge in the Midwest, having their representation in running mate Tim Walz, the Governor of Minnesota.”
Davis Hale ‘25: “It is still a toss-up, but I am leaning towards a second Trump term. Polls are one thing, but the Democratic Party may have vulnerabilities that lose voters on election day, who may vote for the Republican ticket due to their firm stances on critical policies such as on the economy.”
Will Cohen ‘25: “I have been on the fence, back and forth every single day about it. I ultimately think Harris will win the election. Vice President Harris’ slight lead will be female voters, especially women in the Midwest, because abortion rights have become a key issue in this election.”
Peter Beys ‘25: “Harris will win this election. The Midwestern states are likely to be in favor of Harris, whereas the Sun Belt battleground states are likely to go red. My eyes are on Pennsylvania.”
Sofia Senunas ‘25: “I think Kamala Harris will win this election. I do. Pollsters are underrepresenting younger voters, especially Gen Z, who have lower inputs in polls. The fundamental policies that each candidate stands for are central to voters in this election, but at the same time, there are also plenty of voters out there that are more concerned with each candidate’s character than their stances on key issues.”
The Anvil Editor-In-Chief, Jack Elworth ‘25: Trump is highly likely to win the electoral college, given a probable underestimation of Trump’s support in polls which show them in a dead heat. Pollsters entirely failed to capture an accurate picture of support for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and there’s no reason to think 2024 will be any different.”
Faculty remarks:
Mr. Hoar, political science and history teacher: “Using my own election model—taking account of the economy, the approval rating of the current president, and the length of the incumbent party in office—there is a higher likelihood that Donald Trump wins the popular vote. Pollyvote, on the other hand, a program that considers all leading models, predicts a Harris victory for the popular vote (by a 0.4% margin as of November 3, 2024). These models are, nonetheless, ultimately flawed, and what really makes the difference and determines the toss up is voter turnout. At the same time, it is likely that, no matter a second Trump term or a Harris victory, the other party may not accept the election results. Democracy is one of the most fragile systems imaginable, and the reason for its lasting duration in the United States is because, for centuries, the American people have prioritized democracy over other concerns and selfish interests. For that reason, the American people must realize that there are more that unites us than separates us, and that both parties agree on many fundamental policies. Let’s find the middle ground.”
Mr. Hitzrot, history teacher: The answer is no one knows. It will be a very, very tight race, and there may also be attempts to deny election results that threaten the democracy of the United States. For this moment until election day, voter turnout will be pivotal in determining the next President of the United States, and I have a strong suspicion that Pennsylvania’s electoral votes will help either candidate reach 270 votes. At the same time, while it is important and necessary that we stay in conversation, I worry about civil unrest and denials of the election. Here at Middlesex, the community needs to acknowledge and understand the differences in viewpoints and perspectives, as best as we can. To learn how to disagree productively and progress forward are fundamental values of American democracy and at Middlesex School.
The divisiveness of this election presents an opportunity for our School to find unity in our shared values. Enshrined in our Mission Statement, Middlesex is committed to developing “intellectual vitality and discipline” in the student and faculty body. Regardless of outcome or the potential ensuing challenges to vote counts, our School ought to both welcome informed opinions on current events and seek to educate the uninformed.
Sixing Wang