On Monday, January 6th, Justin Trudeau announced that he would be stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada – and by extension – as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. “Amid a plummeting approval rating, growing intraparty discontent, and a 21-point deficit in the polls to the opposing Progressive Conservatives, Trudeau’s departure ended his nine years of leadership of the nation and eleven of the Liberal Party.” The enthusiastic idealist who rocketed into power in 2015 was noticeably more soft-spoken as he announced his resignation outside Rideau Cottage in Canada’s capital, Ottawa – giving a short statement emphasizing his family, service of the country, and concession that he was no longer the best choice as head of the Liberal Party given the increasing calls from within for him to step down. He also announced that the Canadian Parliament will be suspended until a new leader of the liberal party – and Prime Minister – is chosen. This new leader will steer the party and the country into national elections, which will likely happen as soon as possible due to pledges from the opposition to proceed in a vote of no confidence. 

For context, Trudeau has been leading a minority government since 2019, which is only in power due to the unsteady support of smaller parties. Just before the parliament went into a holiday recess, one of these parties – the socially democratic New Democratic Party – joined the Bloc Quebecois and Progressive Conservatives in vowing to force a vote of no confidence as soon as possible in order to vote down the Liberal government. Should this happen, elections would be triggered, and Canadians would go to the ballot in short order. Further, all three of the aforementioned parties have stated that they are resolute in their opposition to the liberals, even despite Trudeau’s resignation, so there is little prospect of a new Liberal-led coalition being built. 

The biggest issues that will ultimately bring down the government include a skyrocketing cost of groceries and other necessities, unaffordable housing, and increasing anti-immigrant sentiment. In the eyes of many Canadians, Trudeau’s policies – though well intended – created many of these issues. Namely, his acceptance of millions of immigrants and refugees did not coincide with a surge in the construction of residential buildings. This resulted in a major economic boost for Canada due to much-needed growth in the skilled and unskilled labor force, but also drastically increased housing demand in a country with a static and limited supply. As more and more Canadians faced dramatic increases in housing costs, slowly building resentment began to taint an initially very warm and welcoming country. Simply put, the Liberals seemed to solve one problem by creating another, fixing economic stagnation but also causing a price of living crisis. 

All of these issues will carry into the election – with the notable addition of one more. President-elect Trump’s recent threats to impose 25% sanctions and potentially attempt to “economically annex” Canada without officially ruling out the prospect of military force have grown increasingly concerning, as the President-elect seems to have conflated the US/Canada trade with Canada “owing” the United States – a position without factual or economic basis. Many in the current government and opposition have met with him and his staff in an attempt to defuse this situation and avoid the looming crisis. If the US follows through on these plans, both countries will suffer an economic catastrophe due to the deep-rooted and wide-ranging trade agreements and cross-border commerce between the two nations. It will be interesting to see just how much that issue will influence Canadian voters – especially as party leader for the socially-democratic NDP party, Jagmeet Singh, recently declared the potential sanctions as a “Ballot Box Issue”. 

It seems almost inevitable that Pierre Poilievre of the Progressive Conservatives will become the new Prime Minister of Canada. While there is much opposition to many of his policies, the hostility against Poilievre is much less exaggerated than the resistance many far-right politicians in the United States face. Although Poilievre’s rhetoric is undoubtedly more stark and incendiary than previous opposition leaders, he is not nearly as radical as many of his American counterparts. That said, there is still hope for a miracle in which the next leader of the Liberal Party is able to salvage the situation in order to retain a frail coalition. At present, this seems almost impossible.