With midterm elections just a few months away, the status of mail-in ballots has become unclear amid legal battles over the security of voting by mail.
The Trump Administration has scrutinized mail-in ballots for enabling “MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD,” President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social. In March, President Trump signed Executive Order 14399 to restrict mail-in ballots and impose stronger United States Postal Service (USPS) regulations; however, federal courts have repeatedly paused the new rules.
Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia sued the Trump Administration over the order, arguing that the rules would disenfranchise voters and violate the Voting Rights Act. The states also contend that the executive branch does not have the authority to enforce the executive order.
On Aug. 24, the Supreme Court ruled that the executive order could not be blocked because no final rule had been established. On Aug. 27, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani issued a temporary restraining order, arguing that a final rule had been issued and that the states’ challenge could move forward. The Trump administration appealed the injunction, sending the issue back to the Supreme Court.
The conflict has sown confusion, but mail-in ballots have already been sent out in some states, making it unlikely that the reforms will take effect for this midterm cycle.
A whistleblower reported that the USPS is not currently able to implement the regulations the Trump administration outlined. Those rules would require states to send lists of voters eligible to vote by mail to the federal government through a portal that has not yet been created and to print ballot envelopes with scannable barcodes.
Opponents argue that there would be disorder at post offices if the rules were enforced, because USPS offices are not equipped to follow the new requirements.
In 2024, 30.4% of votes were cast by mail, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission said.
Voting by mail became far more common during the COVID-19 pandemic and has provided a path to voting for out-of-state college students, overseas military personnel, people with disabilities and others. Voting rights advocates say the executive order is a federal overreach that could interfere with U.S. citizens’ right to vote, particularly for these groups.
The share of ballots cast by mail varies widely between states. Washington, Oregon and Hawaii had the highest percentages of mail-in votes in 2024, the EAC said; each exceeded 90% of voter turnout. California had the most mail-in ballots in total, with 13,062,318 mail ballots cast and counted. These states would be among the most affected by the proposed voting restrictions.
Mail-in voting numbers also align with party affiliations. Registered Democrats vote by mail more often than registered Republicans, The States United Democracy Center said. In 2024, 1 in 4 registered Democrats voted by mail, compared with 1 in 5 registered Republicans.
Democratic-run states have been among the most vocal opponents, claiming the rules could reduce voter turnout in their states.